Holiday Risk Assessment: Forecasting Top 3 Dishes & Desserts
The holidays are a time of joy, laughter, and—let’s be honest—mouthwatering food! Apple pie, creamy eggnog, warm chocolate chip cookies, succulent roasted turkey, golden roasted potatoes, and oh-so-fluffy mashed potatoes… just thinking about them is enough to make anyone's stomach rumble. These holiday staples make our celebrations feel complete, filling the air with irresistible aromas that instantly bring back fond memories.
But behind the magic of these festive recipes lies a crucial ingredient that no one talks about food safety. For food and beverage companies, ensuring that each bite of holiday goodness is not just delicious but safe is a high-stakes game. Whether it's preventing salmonella from undercooked turkey, ensuring proper handling of dairy-laden eggnog, or managing allergens in chocolate chip cookies, food risk assessment is like the invisible elf working behind the scenes to prevent recalls and protect consumers.
In a season where expectations are as high as the mountains of mashed potatoes, companies need a complete overview of the risks and hazards hiding in these beloved recipes. From ingredient sourcing to final packaging, every step must be scrutinized to ensure that holiday meals don’t turn into holiday nightmares. The goal? Delivering the safest and best quality food to consumers—because nothing should spoil the magic of a holiday feast!
So, how exactly does food risk assessment work its magic on holiday favourites? For that we have to combine the powers of some truly classic and delicious recipes from Tasty and the AI-driven food risk intelligence platform, FOODAKAI.
How will that work?
Essentially, with the help of FOODAKAI we performed risk assessments on the ingredients for 6 favourites holiday foods and treats as listed in Tasty.com, and according to what survey revealed as the most popular holiday dishes. The recipes we will be looking at are:
- Roasted Turkey
- Roasted Potatoes
- Mashed Potatoes
- Apple Pie
- Chocolate Chip Cookies
- Eggnog
Let’s start with our savory recipes.
Roasted Turkey
Choosing the perfect roasted turkey for your holiday dinner table is a time-honored tradition that sets the tone for a memorable feast. Whether you prefer a classic recipe like this one or one infused with bold, new Flavors, the right turkey becomes the centrepiece that brings loved ones together. To discover that we risk assessed the recipe as a whole with all ingredients included as listed in this mouth-watering recipe.
According to FOODAKAI, the risk level, as it is calculated based on the risk of ingredients included in this recipe for the last 7 years is High (12/5) with an increasing risk trend of 24% over the past year.
Looking deeper into the ingredients that make up for this recipe, we see that 6 of the 13 ingredients are calculated at High risk Level, with 2 of them (Turkey and Celery) appearing to have an increasing trend as well. Notably, despite their medium risk level, both Carrots and Chicken broth also present an increasing risk tendency.
Roasted Potatoes
Like turkey, roasted potatoes are a holiday dinner essential, offering the perfect balance of crispy edges and fluffy interiors. Choosing the right seasoning and roasting method ensures these golden bites will be a favourite side dish, bringing warmth and satisfaction to your holiday table. Let’s take a look at how this recipe performs when it comes to food safety.
As with roasted turkey, the 7-year risk for roasted potatoes is calculated to be high (12), however with a decreasing risk trend over the last year of 66%.
As illustrated above, of the 9 ingredients included in the recipe only Black Pepper is calculated at high risk. It should be noted that 3 ingredients Potatoes, Baking Soda (Sodium Bicarbonate), and Parsley all have an increasing risk tendency, especially for Baking Soda, which is calculated at 700%.
Mashed Potatoes
Mashed potatoes are a timeless staple of any holiday dinner table, offering the perfect complement to a festive feast. Especially if they are as exciting as these ultimate mashed potatoes from tasty, that are sure to add that special touch of indulgence to your holiday spread. But how do they fair when it comes to food safety?
Calculated with at High 7-year risk (7), mashed potatoes also have a decreasing risk tendency of 66%.
Of its 8 ingredients 2 are calculated as high risk, Black Pepper and Fresh Chives, and only Potatoes with an increasing risk tendency of 6% in the last year. All other ingredients appear to have a decreasing risk tendency.
Apple Pie
To cap of a great holiday dinner selection, desert is in order. And nothing quite like an apple pie with its perfectly spiced filling, flaky crust, and the comforting aroma of baked apples, to captures the essence of fall and winter gatherings. Double the taste of it’s topped with vanilla ice cream like this one.
Apple pie is calculated with a 7-year high risk score 12 but a decreasing risk tendency of 6%.
3 out of the 10 products needed to bake the apple pie, according to FOODAKAI, are high risk: Nutmeg, Lemons, Eggs. Notably, all three have a decreasing risk tendency, in contrast to Cinnamon which is calculated at medium risk but has a 765% increasing risk trend over the past year.
Chocolate Chip Cookies
Chocolate chip cookies are a beloved treat that brings joy to the holiday season. Perfect for sharing with loved ones or leaving out for Santa, this classic chocolate chip cookies recipe adds a cozy, homemade touch to the festive celebrations.
The tasty cookies are calculated with a 7-year high risk but with a decreasing risk trend. Of the 10 ingredients necessary for the recipe only eggs are calculated with high risk but with decreasing trend. Though at medium risk, Baking Soda has an increasing risk trend.
Eggnog
Last but not least comes Eggnog. Whether enjoyed warm or chilled, its blend of milk, cream, and spices like nutmeg and cinnamon evokes the warmth and comfort of the season. Spiked with a splash of rum or bourbon, as in the case of this delicious recipe, eggnog is perfect for toasting with family and friends, making it a festive drink that captures the spirit of the holidays.
Eggnog is calculated with 7-year high risk and a decreasing risk tendency. Eggs and Nutmeg are calculated as high risk over the last 7 years, although with a decreasing risk tendency. No ingredients appear to have an increasing risk over the last year
As we wrap up this holiday culinary journey, it's clear that while the festive season brings joy and comfort to our tables, it's also a time for careful consideration when it comes to food safety. Whether you're biting into a perfectly roasted turkey or indulging in a slice of apple pie, understanding the risks behind these delicious dishes is key to ensuring happy, healthy celebrations. The responsibility lies with food & beverage companies to make sure they have best tools available to offer the safest possible and high-quality food products.
So, as you plan your holiday feast, remember: a little food safety knowledge can go a long way in keeping the magic alive and your loved ones safe! Happy holidays—and may your meals be merry, bright, and risk-free!
Discover how you can enhance your food safety processes here.