Sponsored by Horizon EFRA Project (Extreme Food Risk Analytics)

In an increasingly complex global food system, ensuring the safety of what we eat has never been more critical. From the farm to the table, food products traverse vast networks, encountering numerous risks that could jeopardize consumer health and brand integrity. Agroknow’s Monthly Food Risk Index emerges as a powerful tool to shed light on these challenges.

This index delivers a comprehensive snapshot of food safety risks across 11 key product categories—Juices, Dairy, Meat & Poultry, Vegetables, Eggs, Nuts, Hot Beverages, Oils & Fat, Fish & Seafood, Fruits, and Cereals. 

The Food Risk Index can span between 0 and 15 and is calculated by combining two key factors:

• Hazard Severity: The potential health impact of a hazard, ranked from 1 (minor) to 3 (severe), based on classifications from authoritative bodies like the FDA.
• Probability: The likelihood of a hazard occurring, determined by the frequency of food safety incidents relative to all reported cases for a given ingredient or product.

By analyzing recent incidents and historical trends, it offers actionable insights that help stakeholders stay ahead of potential hazards.

November  2024- Overview of findings in all categories

The chart above illustrates the comparison of food safety risk levels across various product categories for November 2024 and the average of maximum risks observed over the past years. This analysis provides critical insights into potential hazard trends, enabling stakeholders to focus their safety efforts where they are needed most. 

The key findings from the data alarm us for a notable increase in Eggs Risk.

The Eggs category stands out with the highest risk level in November 2024, significantly exceeding the average of the past years.  This sharp increase highlights the need for a deeper analysis. The rest of the product categories maintain their normal levels of risks compared to the previous years.

Specific Hazards in the Eggs Category: Spotlight on Salmonella

The Eggs category, which recorded the highest risk levels in November 2024, reveals a complex hazard profile dominated by microbial contamination, particularly Salmonella. 
The chart above provides a breakdown of specific hazards contributing to the elevated risk, highlighting the severity and diversity of threats within this category.

Key Findings:
Salmonella – The Dominant Hazard:
Salmonella emerges as the most significant risk, with an exceedingly high value compared to other hazards. Subtypes such as Salmonella Braenderup, Salmonella Enteritidis, and Salmonella Typhimurium contribute substantially to this risk.
These pathogens are known for their severe health impacts, often causing widespread foodborne illness outbreaks globally. Their high presence underscores the vulnerability of egg production and distribution systems to contamination.

Microbiological Contamination Beyond Salmonella:

Apart from Salmonella, broader microbiological contamination represents a notable risk. While less severe, these hazards indicate potential lapses in hygienic handling or processing within the supply chain.
The chart above compares the seasonal average risk value for Salmonella in eggs across all years with the specific risk observed in November 2024. The results reveal a significant deviation in November, with the risk value dramatically surpassing historical averages

Analysis of Salmonella Incidents Driving the Risk Spike in Eggs

The sharp rise in Salmonella risk observed in November 2024 reflects a concerning series of incidents across the United States and Europe. These events expose significant vulnerabilities in egg production, handling, and distribution systems, emphasizing the need for improved safety measures and proactive risk management.

In the United States, several high-profile recalls were pivotal in driving the elevated risk. A notable case involved Handsome Brook Farms, which, on November 27, 2024, voluntarily recalled over 10,800 units of organic pasture-raised eggs sold under the Kirkland Signature brand. Distributed across 25 Costco stores in multiple states, these eggs were flagged for potential Salmonella contamination. The recall was triggered when eggs not intended for retail distribution were mistakenly packaged and sold. Although no illnesses were reported, the incident revealed critical gaps in supply chain controls and reinforced the importance of stringent packaging and distribution protocols.

Similarly, Milo’s Poultry Farms in Wisconsin initiated a major recall earlier in September. Environmental samples from their facilities tested positive for Salmonella, which the FDA linked to an ongoing outbreak through whole genome sequencing. This led to the suspension of operations and a comprehensive review of sanitization and testing processes. These U.S. cases underline the challenges of maintaining safety in large-scale egg production and distribution networks, especially when biosecurity measures fail.

Across Europe, Salmonella outbreaks were equally widespread. In the Netherlands, repeated contamination incidents in October and November 2024 signaled ongoing issues in egg production. France faced similar challenges, with recalls initiated by Ovalis and La New Ferme Cocotte. The affected eggs, distributed through major retailers like Carrefour and Intermarché, were found to be contaminated with strains such as Salmonella Typhimurium and Salmonella Enteritidis. Consumers were urged to either discard the eggs or ensure thorough cooking to minimize health risks. Meanwhile, Italy, Poland, Romania, and Sweden also reported significant cases of Salmonella contamination, with several incidents detected during routine testing or in response to consumer complaints.

One striking feature of these incidents is the prevalence of Salmonella Enteritidis, which emerged as the dominant strain in most of the recalls. This highlights a persistent threat within the global egg supply chain, as Enteritidis is particularly resilient and often linked to large-scale outbreaks. Many of these incidents stemmed from farm-level contamination, pointing to systemic issues in hygiene practices and biosecurity measures at the source.

The impact of these events goes beyond immediate recalls. They expose critical weaknesses in both regional and international food safety systems. Inconsistent enforcement of safety standards, gaps in traceability, and the complexities of global distribution networks have all contributed to the scale of these outbreaks. The incidents in Poland and the Netherlands, for instance, highlight how cross-border trade can amplify risks, with contaminated products potentially reaching far beyond their country of origin.

To address these challenges, it is essential to invest in proactive monitoring and risk management. Enhanced farm-level biosecurity, rigorous supply chain oversight, and harmonized food safety protocols across countries are critical to reducing the likelihood of future contamination. Furthermore, raising consumer awareness about proper egg handling and cooking practices can mitigate health risks, even in cases where contamination is not immediately detected.

The recent spike in Salmonella risk for eggs serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of the global food supply chain. By understanding the root causes of these incidents and implementing targeted interventions, the food industry can take meaningful steps toward ensuring safer products and restoring consumer confidence.

Conclusion
The findings in the November 2024 Agroknow Monthly Food Risk Index underscore the critical importance of proactive food safety measures, especially in high-risk categories like eggs. The unprecedented spike in Salmonella-related risks highlights systemic vulnerabilities across the global supply chain, from farm-level biosecurity lapses to distribution network challenges. These incidents serve as a powerful reminder of the need for continuous monitoring, rigorous safety protocols, and cross-border collaboration to safeguard public health.
The Food Risk Index not only sheds light on emerging risks but also empowers stakeholders to take informed actions to mitigate hazards and strengthen food safety practices. By analyzing data from multiple regions and incidents, it equips industry leaders, regulators, and consumers with the insights needed to stay ahead of evolving threats.
As we strive for a safer global food system, tools like Agroknow's Food Risk Index are essential for fostering transparency and accountability. 

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About this Food Risk Report and EFRA 

This Food Risk Report was prepared under the EFRA project, as a Sectoral Data Report.  EFRA is a project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 101093026 Project website: https://efraproject.eu/