Sponsored by Horizon EFRA Project (Extreme Food Risk Analytics)

Welcome to Agroknow’s Monthly Food Risk Index 

In an increasingly complex global food system, ensuring the safety of what we eat has never been more critical. 

From the farm to the table, food products traverse vast networks, encountering numerous risks that could jeopardize consumer health and brand integrity.

Agroknow’s Monthly Food Risk Index emerges as a powerful tool to shed light on these challenges.

This index delivers a comprehensive snapshot of food safety risks across 11 key product categories—Juices, Dairy, Meat & Poultry, Vegetables, Eggs, Nuts, Hot Beverages, Oils & Fat, Fish & Seafood, Fruits, and Cereals. 

The Food Risk Index can span between 0 and 15 and is calculated by combining two key factors:

1. Hazard Severity: The potential health impact of a hazard, ranked from 1 (minor) to 3 (severe), based on classifications from authoritative bodies like the FDA.
2. Probability: The likelihood of a hazard occurring, determined by the frequency of food safety incidents relative to all reported cases for a given ingredient or product.

By analyzing recent incidents and historical trends, it offers actionable insights that help stakeholders stay ahead of potential hazards.

December 2024 - Overview of findings in all categories 

The chart above provides the comparison of food safety risk levels across various product categories for December 2024 and the average of maximum risks observed over prior years.

The data reveals a continuation of trends observed in our November analysis, offering a clearer picture of evolving food safety concerns.

The Eggs category remains the focal point, with its risk level in December once again significantly exceeding the historical average. This continuation of heightened risk suggests that the factors contributing to this increase are persistent and require immediate attention. The sustained trend underscores the importance of identifying and addressing the root causes to ensure food safety in this category.

Other product categories continue to reflect risk levels consistent with their historical norms, with no significant changes observed. This stability is reassuring, but it also emphasizes the stark contrast with the escalating risk in Eggs.

As December marks the second consecutive month of elevated risk in the Eggs category, it is critical to prioritize resources and investigations to manage this ongoing trend effectively, while maintaining vigilance across all other product categories.

The Eggs category, which continues to exhibit the highest risk levels in December 2024, reveals an ongoing challenge driven by microbial hazards, with Salmonella taking center stage.

The chart above provides a detailed look at the specific factors contributing to this elevated risk, underscoring the need for focused safety measures in this category.

Key Observations:

Salmonella – The Leading Threat:

Salmonella remains the primary concern, showing significantly elevated levels compared to other hazards. Strains such as Salmonella Braenderup, Salmonella Enteritidis, and Salmonella Typhimurium play a pivotal role in driving this risk.

These pathogens are notorious for their potential to cause widespread outbreaks and severe health outcomes. Their persistent detection points to systemic issues in egg handling, processing, and distribution that require immediate redress.

Microbiological Contamination Beyond Salmonella:

Apart from Salmonella, broader microbiological contamination represents a notable risk. While less severe, these hazards indicate potential lapses in hygienic handling or processing within the supply chain.

The recurrence of these hazards from November into December underscores the critical need for intensified safety measures, better monitoring systems, and robust interventions to safeguard public health and ensure the integrity of the Eggs category.

The chart above compares the seasonal average risk value for Salmonella in eggs across all years with the specific risk observed in December 2024. The results reveal a significant deviation in December, with the risk value dramatically surpassing historical averages.

Analysis of Salmonella Incidents Driving the Risk Spike in Eggs
The persistent elevation in risk levels for the Eggs category throughout 2024 can be traced to numerous Salmonella-related incidents across multiple countries. The widespread nature of these cases and their recurring patterns indicate systemic vulnerabilities in the egg production, handling, and distribution chains.

Key Trends and Findings

Dominance of Salmonella Enteritidis:
Salmonella Enteritidis has been the primary pathogen identified in most incidents. Countries such as the Netherlands, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Italy, and Sweden reported Salmonella Enteritidis contamination in eggs, with pathogenic microorganisms detected in multiple samples. These incidents suggest common risk factors, such as inadequate biosecurity measures at farms or contamination during processing.

Global Distribution of Incidents

Europe: Incidents were widespread across Europe, including France, Italy, Poland, Romania, and Sweden. France alone reported multiple recalls involving Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Typhimurium in products distributed across major retailers.

United States: High-profile recalls in November and earlier months involved large-scale contamination in organic and retail-grade eggs, prompting voluntary recalls and FDA investigations.

Ukraine and the Netherlands: These countries reported repeated contamination, indicating regional vulnerabilities in their production or export processes.

Scale of Recalls:
The volume of recalled products in certain incidents highlights the potential for large-scale exposure to contaminated eggs. For instance, the recall by Handsome Brook Farms in the United States involved thousands of units distributed across multiple states. Similarly, recalls in France and Italy targeted products from major brands and distributors, reflecting the risk of widespread distribution before contamination is identified.

Health Implications:
Salmonella outbreaks pose severe health risks, particularly to vulnerable populations. Reports frequently highlighted the risk of gastroenteritis and more severe outcomes such as arterial infections or endocarditis. These cases emphasize the importance of early detection and rapid response to contamination events.

Common Themes in Causation:
Processing Failures: Many incidents were linked to mishandling during production or packaging, as seen in the United States and France.
Biosecurity Lapses: Contamination at the farm level, noted in Sweden and Poland, underscores the need for stricter hygiene and monitoring practices.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: The global nature of the egg trade magnifies risks, with contaminated products reaching multiple regions before detection.
The recurrence of Salmonella-related incidents in eggs across diverse geographies highlights systemic challenges in ensuring food safety. The consistent presence of pathogens like Salmonella Enteritidis and Typhimurium underscores the need for improved farm biosecurity, enhanced processing protocols, and rigorous monitoring of supply chains. Addressing these vulnerabilities is critical to mitigating risks and restoring consumer confidence in the safety of eggs worldwide.

Conclusion
The findings from Agroknow's December 2024 Food Risk Index highlight a critical and persistent issue in the Eggs category, driven primarily by Salmonella-related hazards. The sustained elevation in risk levels underscores systemic vulnerabilities within global egg production, processing, and distribution chains.
Key trends, such as the dominance of Salmonella Enteritidis, widespread incidents across multiple regions, and the large scale of product recalls, illustrate the urgent need for proactive measures to address these challenges. These incidents also serve as a stark reminder of the health implications of Salmonella contamination, particularly for vulnerable populations, and the potential for significant disruptions to food supply chains and brand integrity.
The data reinforces the necessity for industry-wide collaboration to implement stricter biosecurity measures, enhance supply chain monitoring, and improve processing protocols. By addressing these systemic issues, stakeholders can not only mitigate risks in the Eggs category but also contribute to a more robust global food safety system.
As we move into 2025, Agroknow’s Food Risk Index remains a vital tool for identifying and addressing emerging risks, enabling stakeholders to take informed actions to safeguard public health and ensure the safety of food products worldwide.

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About this Food Risk Report and EFRA 

This Food Risk Report was prepared under the EFRA project, as a Sectoral Data Report.  EFRA is a project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 101093026 Project website: https://efraproject.eu/