Welcome to January’s edition of our Monthly Forecasts Review, where we review the incident forecasts for the previous month to understand the effectiveness of the forecasting models.

How is the performance of the forecasts reviewed? 

We perform a comparative analysis of the forecasted incidents trend for each food product category, hazard, and risk category for January as seen in FOODAKAI against the actual recorded incidents for that month. 

FOODAKAI utilizes trend forecasting models that take advantage of more than 250 distinct factors in order to produce robust generalized models and accurate predictions that help food & beverage companies to drastically enhanced food risk prevention. 

This time we are back to examine incident trends forecasts for 10 key food categories and hazard trends forecasts for the top Biological, Chemical, Foreign Bodies, Allergens Hazards as well as Food Fraud.

For our previous edition ─ the January report, read here.Want to get a first-hand experience of how you can receive instant alerts and forecasts for a product of your choice? Start here.

Key Food Categories Forecasts Review.

Firstly, let’s start with the overall incidents trend forecasts in 10 Key Food Categories for February.

FOODAKAI successfully forecasted the incident trends in 9 out of the 10 key food categories: Cocoa, Coffee & Tea, Fruits & Vegetables, Dairy Products, Poultry & Poultry Meat Products, Herbs & Spices, Cereals & Bakery, Fats & Oils, Nuts & Seeds, and Meat & Meat products. The forecast for the Confectionary category was not successful.

Highlights:

• In the Cocoa, Coffee & Tea, Fruits & Vegetables, Dairy Products, and Fats & Oils categories, while FOODAKAI forecasted the trend, it managed so with a big difference in the percentages from forecasted to actual increase.
• In the Poultry & Poultry Meat Products, Herbs & Spices, Cereals & Bakery, Nuts & Seeds, and Meat & Meat Products categories the platform forecasted with great accuracy the trend with only a slight difference between the forecasted vs the actual result
• Unfortunately, for Confectionary the failure to predict the forecasts means there should be a fine-tuning of the model.

Hazard & Risk Categories Forecasts Review

FOODAKAI managed to successfully forecast the incidents’ trend for all Hazard and Risk types: Chemical, Biological, Allergens, Food Fraud, and Foreign Bodies.

Highlights:

• In the  Chemical, Allergens, and Fraud Hazard type categories, the platform managed an exceptional forecast of the trend.
• In the Biological and Foreign Bodies Hazards type categories, while the platform correctly forecasted the decrease, the resulting forecast was much bigger than the actual trend. 

Chemical Hazards Forecasts Per Food Category

The platform forecasted the incident trends for Chemical hazards in 7 out of 9 food categories: Fruits & Vegetables, Diary Products, Herbs & Spices, Cereals & Bakery, Fats & Oils, Nuts & Seeds, and Meat & Meat products. For the Cocoa, Coffee & Tea, and Confectionary categories, the incident trend was not forecasted successfully. For the Poultry & Poultry Meat Products category, no Chemical incidents were reported.

Highlights:

• For Chemical Hazards in Fruits & Vegetables, Diary Products, Herbs & Spices, Fats & Oils, Nuts & Seeds, and Meat & Meat Products, the platform forecasted the trend with only a small difference in the percentages between the actual and forecasted number of incidents.
• For Chemical Hazard incidents in Cereals & Bakery and Meat & Meat Products, FOODAKAI forecasted the increasing trend but with a large difference between the actual and forecasted number of incidents.
• Finally, in the Cocoa, Coffee & Tea, and Confectionary FOODAKAI failed to forecast the trends

As food & beverage companies are increasingly facing a landscape of unexpected supply chain disruptions, novel food risks, it is now more than ever vital for them to be able to anticipate emerging risks and mitigate them before they escalate. AI and predictive analytics are no longer an experiment but a tested solution that can empower companies to companies to proactively identify potential hazards and incidents before they occur. 

FOODAKAI helps F&B companies to leverage the power of accurate forecasts for biological, chemical, allergen, foreign bodies, and food fraud risks, to ensure product safety, prevent costly recalls, and maintain consumer trust. 

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