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Welcome to November’s edition of our Monthly Forecasts Review, where we review the incident forecasts for the previous month to understand the effectiveness of the forecasting models.

How is the performance of the forecasts reviewed? 

We perform a comparative analysis of the forecasted incidents trend for each food product category, hazard, and risk category for September as seen in FOODAKAI against the actual recorded incidents for that month. 

FOODAKAI utilizes trend forecasting models that take advantage of more than 250 distinct factors in order to produce robust generalized models and accurate predictions that help food & beverage companies to drastically enhanced food risk prevention. 

This time we are back to examine incident trends forecasts for 10 key food categories and hazard trends forecasts for the top Biological, Chemical, Foreign Bodies, Allergens Hazards as well as Food Fraud.

For our previous edition ─ September report, read here.

Want to get a first-hand experience of how you can receive instant alerts and forecasts for a product of your choice? Start here.

Key Food Categories Forecasts Review

Firstly, let’s start with the overall incidents trend forecasts in 10 Key Food Categories for October.

FOODAKAI successfully forecasted the incident trends in 8 out of the 10 key food categories: Cocoa, Coffee & Tea, Fruits & Vegetables, Dairy Products, Poultry & Poultry Meat Products, Cereals & Bakery, Fats & Oils, Nuts & Seeds and Meat & Meat products. The forecasts for the Herbs & Spices and Confectionary categories were not successful.

Highlights:

• In the Cocoa, Coffee & Tea, and Meat & Meat products categories, while FOODAKAI forecasted an increasing trend, it managed so with a big difference in the percentages from forecasted to actual increase. While in the first product category the large amounts of data could offer better forecasts in the future, in the latter category this is mainly attributed to the latency in the announcement of the incidents by public sources.
• In the Fruits & Vegetables, Dairy Products, Fats & Oils, and Nuts & Seeds product categories the platform forecasted with great accuracy the trend with only a slight difference between the forecasted vs the actual result
• For Cereal & Bakery and Poultry & Poultry Meat products, a near-perfect forecast was achieved by the platform’s AI-powered models.
• Unfortunately, for Herbs & Spices products the failure to predict the forecasts means there should be a fine-tuning of the model. 
• For Confectionery product categories, FOODAKAI forecasted an increase in the number of incidents rather than a decrease. In the case of Confectionery, this forecasting can be attributed to the lack of data.

Hazard & Risk Categories Forecasts Review

Now, let’s review the performance of the hazard & risk trend forecasts in comparison to the recorded number of incidents.

FOODAKAI managed to successfully forecast the incidents trend in 4 out of the 5 Hazard and Risk types: Chemical, Allergens, Food Fraud, and Foreign Bodies. It didn’t forecast correctly the trend for Biological incidents.

Highlights:

• For Biological Hazards incidents, the platform forecasted a decrease of the actual increase.
• In the Chemical, Allergens, and Foreign Bodies Hazard type categories, the platform managed an exceptional forecast of the trend.
• In the Food Fraud product category, while the platform correctly forecasted the increase, due to the delay in the announcement of incidents by public sources, the resulting forecast was much bigger than the actual trend.

Chemical Hazards Forecasts Per Food Category

Finally, let’s dig deeper into the forecasted vs the actual trends for incidents associated with chemical hazards for these 10 Food Categories.

The platform forecasted successfully the incident trends for chemical hazards in all the food categories: Cocoa, Coffee & Tea, Fruits & Vegetables, Poultry & Poultry Meat Products, Herbs & Spices, Cereals & Bakery, Confectionary, Fats & Oils, Nuts & Seeds, and Meat & Meat products. For the Dairy Products, no chemical incidents were reported.

Highlights:

• For Chemical Hazards in Fruits & Vegetables and Herbs & Spices, the platform forecasted the increasing trend with only a small difference in the percentages between the actual and forecasted number of incidents.
• For Chemical Hazard incidents in Cocoa, Coffee & Tea, Poultry & Poultry Meat Products, Cereals & Bakery, Confectionary, Fats & Oils, and Nuts & Seeds products, FOODAKAI forecasted the increasing and decreasing trend accordingly but with a large difference between the actual and forecasted number of incidents.
• Finally, in the Meat & Meat product category, FOODAKAI achieved a 100% accurate forecasting.

As food & beverage companies are increasingly facing a landscape of unexpected supply chain disruptions, novel food risks, it is now more than ever vital for them to be able to anticipate emerging risks and mitigate them before they escalate. AI and predictive analytics are no longer an experiment but a tested solution that can empower companies to companies to proactively identify potential hazards and incidents before they occur. 

FOODAKAI helps F&B companies to leverage the power of accurate forecasts for biological, chemical, allergen, and food fraud risks, to ensure product safety, prevent costly recalls, and maintain consumer trust. 

Want to learn more about how you can benefit from such forecasts, book a demo here.